Aryna Sabalenka – Qinwen Zheng

Can Sabalenka continue her dominance against Zheng?

Aryna Sabalenka has made a habit of dominating Qinwen Zheng. Six meetings, six wins. But when they meet in Rome, the conditions are a little different: For the first time, they meet on clay, a surface Zheng masters far better than hardcourt, where all their previous meetings have been played. And while Sabalenka is in brilliant form, this is probably the biggest test she has faced in the tournament so far.

Aryna Sabalenka

The world number two from Belarus has been one of the most consistent players on the WTA tour over the past two seasons. In 2025, she has already won the Miami Open and the Madrid Open, and comes to Rome with great confidence. So far in the tournament, she has beaten Marta Kostyuk and Anastasia Potapova in straight sets, and she has done it quite superbly.

Sabalenka's strengths are clear, she has one of the most powerful serves on the tour, combined with heavy baseline play and aggression from both sides. She has raised her mental level over the past year, showing that she can not only beat anyone, but also control matches that she would have previously struggled to finish. On clay, she has often been able to show more patience, which has been the key to her good results.

At the same time, there is a certain imbalance when she is pressed over time. Opponents who force her into long points and challenge her to hit three to four extra balls per duel can make her impatient. And that is exactly the type of match Zheng will try to create.

Qinwen Zheng

The 21-year-old Chinese has had a positive development in the past year. After the final of the 2024 Australian Open and victory at the Paris Olympics, she has consolidated her position in the top 10. On clay, she is extra dangerous, she moves well, hits hard and can withstand long rallies.

In Rome, Zheng has won all three of her matches in straight sets, including against Magdalena Frech. Against Frech, she showed a nice combination of aggression and patience, keeping her cool in crucial points. She has been through a tough draw, but seems to be finding her rhythm at this point in the season.

Zheng has lost all six of her previous meetings with Sabalenka, but several of the matches have been more even than the results suggest. In Miami earlier this year, she lost 2–6, 5–7, and it is clear that she is gradually approaching the level needed to match the world number one.

Previous meetings and match photos

As mentioned, Sabalenka has won all six of their previous meetings, but this will be the first time they have met on clay. The previous matches have been characterized by Sabalenka's ability to dominate with serve and return. On clay, Zheng gets more time to set up her game, and that could make a big difference.

Zheng will likely try to extend points, use height and angles to get Sabalenka off balance. She will also need to make good use of her own serve games, which is critical against Sabalenka, who is a very dangerous returner. The match could be decided by who best handles the pressure in the crucial moments, especially when break points or tiebreaks are being played.

Will Zheng be able to change the trend, or will it be another Sabal lesson?

Sabalenka is in form, enjoying herself in Rome and has had good control over Zheng in the past. Although Zheng is more dangerous on clay and has improved, we don't think she's quite there yet. Sabalenka has looked focused and has only dropped one set all tournament. We're betting she'll continue in the same vein;

WTA Rome at 19:00: Aryna Sabalenka - Qinwen Zheng: Sabalenka wins 2-0 (1.83)

Alternative games:

Sabalenka has won four of her six matches against Zheng with few games played, so if she makes an early move, the match could be shorter than the market expects.

WTA Rome at 19:00: Aryna Sabalenka – Qinwen Zheng: Under 20.5 games (2.05)

For those who want a slightly more fun game with higher odds, you can try this one;

You can see that Sabalenka plays 6-3 first sets more often than most. This fits well against a Zheng who often needs a little time to get going.

WTA Rome at 19:00: Aryna Sabalenka – Qinwen Zheng: Sabalenka wins first set 6–3 (4.50)