Arsenal - Tottenham 23-11-25

The North London derby. Arsenal vs Tottenham. Rival fans in red and white against the lily whites. The battle for the borough, and the fight for bragging rights for a week. Well, for Tottenham fans it may go even deeper. Beating Arsenal away from home means the season is saved in a way. The only problem is that hardly anyone is doing that at the moment. Having half the team in the infirmary doesn't help either. Because that's the situation for Tottenham this season. Both first and second choices are absent, and you really have to make the best of what you have available. Against a full-strength Arsenal, that's not the conditions you want. But, there will be a match, and nothing comes for free this Sunday!

Arsenal – A rock solid team on the way to something big

But then came a small mistake. A strong Sunderland team made headlines by holding the league leaders to a 2-2 draw. Sunderland are not easy to push this season, and suddenly Arsenal got a little wake-up call. Manchester City took advantage of the mistake, and voila, it's closer at the top. It's clear that Arsenal can't have many of those games if the season is to be crowned with league gold.

At home to Tottenham, the fans expect three points and a team back on the winning track. Arteta sees a team that has barely conceded goals so far in the season, and Arsenal have become some real cynics. That's not a negative thing, at least not when it comes to winning titles. You have to keep your opponents at bay, choose your transitions, take advantage of the set pieces you get, and build up the defense instead of offering Hawaiian football. We see a different Arsenal this season, and the fact that they conceded two goals against Sunderland was therefore very surprising. In the ten Premier League games before, they had only taken three balls out of their own net. Numbers that make the league title possible.

If Arsenal win on Sunday, as the undersigned believes they will, it will be in line with what is common when these two clash at the Emirates. The home team is not generous on their own turf, and an injury-hit Tottenham will have to be completely out of the woods if they are to get the bus home with points in their luggage.

If we take a word about the injury situation, it doesn't look particularly bright for anyone this Sunday. The home team has the important Gabriel out, along with key players like captain Ødegaard, Havertz, Gyökeres and Martinelli. The list is starting to get long and painful now, and you have to find ways to utilize the ones you actually have available. We imagine a cautious home team, who will likely get the necessary set-piece scoring that you need.

Tottenham – Do they have enough players to field a team?

Tottenham are miraculously holding on to fifth place so far this season. Well done to a team that has to use both a janitor and a canteen lady to field eleven players. Tottenham have been dealt a tough injury blow, and if this doesn't improve soon there is a real chance that the team will fall like a lottery ticket down the table.

Ahead of the match against Arsenal, Maddison, Kulusevski, Kolo Muani, Solanke, Bergvall, Gray, Davies and Bissouma are unavailable. It is starting to approach a full eleven on the sidelines, and several of these are very central contributors for Frank. Kudus is reported to be on schedule ahead of the match, which helps a little. Otherwise, a lot will fall on the Brazilian with the sun-bleached mane in terms of offensive contributions. It could be a bit thin.

Spurs are not particularly keen on facing Arsenal away either. It is a difficult ground for everyone, and perhaps especially for the many London rivals. Arsenal take many set pieces, are heavy in the field, and do not give up at the gates. This way of playing football can be frustrating for opponents, and Spurs will probably feel the physical superiority coming Sunday.

Conclusion – Another controlled three points for Arteta

For Arsenal are favorites. The top of the table is the goal in May, and if Ødegaard and his friends are to end up there in the end, they just have to keep going, especially now after a point drop. They have to get back on their feet, and they don't have time to dwell too much on what went wrong last time.

The odds that the points will remain in the pocket of the fine Spaniard are low. At the time of writing, a home win is around 1.45. That's fair enough, if you want a variant with a lower degree of risk. But what else do we know? Yes, Arsenal concede little. Yes, in fact, almost zero on their own turf. We also know that Tottenham has a lot of injuries in offensive positions. This could already indicate a victory without Spurs creating all the world. The away team has delivered a couple of performances this season with xG barely measurable. Will we get a similar situation on Sunday?

Arsenal, as mentioned earlier, are a bit more cynical this season. Not only are they tight at the back, they are also hitting much more long, fighting for second balls, and focusing on set pieces. If they have a hole in the boil, we have seen several times that Arteta calls the troops home, and puts all his energy into securing the lead. After all, you don't get more than three points out of a football match, and that mindset now seems to be nailed to the wall in the home dressing room.

Can we combine this into a decent game? We think we can. Arsenal wins, and Spurs won't get in. A safe home win in the direction of 1-0/2-0 tastes good, and that's why we end up with a recommendation in that area.

England at 17:30: Arsenal – Tottenham: Home win and Under 3.5 goals (2.10)

Alternative game

England at 17:30: Arsenal – Tottenham: Both teams to score: No (1.78)