Arsenal - Newcastle 18-05-24

Arsenal must stay the course. There is no alternative. Arteta's project must live on, and then they must save the remains of this season. That means finishing in the top five in the Premier League, and thus securing tickets for the Champions League in the fall. Second place seems relatively safe, but it only takes a small mistake against Newcastle to be passed over. The point they secured at Anfield last round could be worth its weight in gold in that respect. For Newcastle, the season could end with both second place in the league, as well as winners of the Carabao Cup. That must be said to be an acceptable performance. The form of Sunday's away team is solid, and they handled Chelsea well in an important top match last round. Chelsea did manage to be reduced to ten men in the first half, but still, the points remained in Newcastle. An advanced position and a few extra kroner in the bank are at stake this Sunday evening in London.

 

Arsenal – This is not the time to lick your wounds

 

The home team did a good job away to Liverpool last time out. The league champions ran over the Londoners in the first 45 minutes, and could easily have scored more goals than the two they conceded. Arteta's men responded in the second half, and managed to salvage the one point. That's great, considering the match load, and the slump they experienced against PSG.

 

Now it's about finishing the season in style and securing second place. It's not the world to finish second versus third, but it sends a certain signal nonetheless. You are the best contender, and you manage to shake off defeat. It takes a lot to stand your ground even when things don't go your way, and if Arsenal are to continue to develop as a top team, you just have to grow from all the experiences you can throughout the season. It's been a long time since they last won the league, and the Champions League has never found its way to the red and whites, but that's where the ambitions lie, so you have to work through the hard times too. Arsenal aren't there, but they're not too far away either.

 

The squad has a couple of obvious shortcomings. The top eleven are good, but then you are very prone to injuries. The player base is somewhat thin, and especially at the top you need a goal stealer. That has been the case for Arsenal for many seasons now. For some reason, this position is neglected season after season, and you end up getting other pieces instead. This summer you just have to. Havertz is a useful player, but he is not a goal guarantee. Jesus is not the answer either. If Arsenal manages to land a finisher in the Isak class, the coming season could be eventful for the historically successful club.

 

It has been a while now. We have to go back about a month to find the last win. The last five have resulted in three losses and two draws. They stumbled when it mattered most. The reality is that with a point at home against Newcastle, second place is more or less cemented. Southampton awaits in the last round, and if they can't just go and get the three points, then it's not far away. The home game against Newcastle is the last big test, three points here and you can turn your focus to the coming season, knowing that you are still in the firing line.

 

Newcastle – A season of ups and downs, and a candidate for manager of the year

 

Newcastle have won a title this year! That in itself is enough to call the season a success. The players seem to enjoy Howe's style of play, and the attacking line that you occasionally see in full force is no small thing. The question is whether players like Gordon and Isak are happy with the League Cup and a top four position. If the answer is no, then you have to start a little over again, but that time, that sorrow. As of now, the season is something to smile about, and Newcastle can, with a win in their last two league games, end the season in second place! Who would have thought it.

 

Sunday's away team is flying well during the day. In the last ten in the league, they are 7-1-2, and second place is within reach. At the same time, they are not guaranteed to end up among the top five. Because it is so close at the top this year. If they lose to Arsenal, while City, Chelsea and Villa take three points, then it will be a real match in the last round. A home match against Everton is still manageable, so things look bright for now. The only problem is that the three mentioned above are all favorites in their matches, and with that premise, Newcastle could soon find themselves equal with Villa and Chelsea ahead of the last round of the series. Points at the Emirates would have been worth their weight in gold.

 

Newcastle knocked out Arsenal on their way to winning the League Cup. Both games were won 2-0, and they were the better team overall by a fairly good margin. The situation is different on Sunday, however. Arsenal are no longer busy with Champions League games, and the fact that the home team has second place to play for will give Newcastle a tough away game. Important Joelinton is out for the season with his knee injury. The reverse fixture in the league also ended in victory for the black and whites.

 

Conclusion – Home field advantage or form?

 

It is not written in stone how this will end. Arsenal's season crumbled a bit, and the medal collection is the same as when the season started. It is like just a new verse in the increasingly familiar tale. The bright spot is, however, that they have slowly but surely moved up the table, and are now more or less the closest challenger. That the Champions League is important is beyond any doubt, and that is where Arsenal can be found now. Both the signaling effect and the prize money are absolutely central for a big club. Ahead of the match against Newcastle, Havertz, Jesus, Timber, Gabriel and maybe also Rice are out. If Rice plays, you are a better football team. It remains to be seen, however, because there are rumors that the season may be over for the important midfielder.

 

What about Newcastle? Well, they are in better shape than their opponents. Newcastle have beaten Arsenal three out of three times this season, and with a win on Sunday could become the first team to beat the Gunners four times in one season. Injuries are fewer, and the match load is milder. Will the psychological advantage play a role then?

 

Raya in the cage for the home team is fighting for the Golden Glove this season. The last chance has been solid, and is currently only one match behind Sels in the Nottingham cage in the race for the most clean sheets, as it would be so nicely translated directly from English. Arsenal is suffering a bit without Gabriel in central defense, and with Rice out, the engine room is somewhat weakened as well.

 

If we sum up all this, and take into account the fact that neither of these two want to play a draw on Sunday, then we would think that is exactly what we will get. It is not a crisis for anyone, as both Arsenal and Newcastle have relatively easy opposition in round 38 of the league. Newcastle have the best form, the best mutual statistics between the teams this season, and the least injury concerns. Arsenal are playing at home, and want to end the season on the right foot in front of their own fans. A close and even affair is predicted, and we agree, this will probably be it. Nobody wants to lose, and then you don't necessarily take the same chances. The chance that Newcastle will take four straight against Arsenal is present, but if Eddie Howe is offered a point share, he will probably take it. Watch out for a tactical battle, and perhaps not the exuberant offensive game that you want at this stage of the season.

 

We are therefore playing under 2.5 goals. Nine of the last ten matches between the teams have ended with two or fewer goals. That's 90% of them! Beyond that, the fear of losing is great, as it would actually change the table order. If I had put money on a match result before kick-off, it would have been 1-1. Enjoy the match!

 

England at 17:30: Arsenal - Newcastle: Under 2.5 goals (2.05)

 

Alternative game

England at 17:30: Arsenal - Newcastle: UB (1.85)

England at 17:30: Arsenal – Newcastle: Result 1-1 (7.35)