Arsenal - Crystal Palace 26-10-25

Arsenal have really picked up steam now, and are rushing forward at a furious pace. Top of the table in England, Liverpool are on top, and one goal down to Manchester City. The matches are being won one after the other, and as of now everything is working perfectly for Arteta's men. A dominant performance against Atletico Madrid was the final straw for now, and now Gyökeres is also scoring again. Arsenal are smiling like the sun. At Palace, a fine start to the season has stalled somewhat over the last two matches. One point out of six, and somewhat uncharacteristically, five balls have ended up in their own net. This has resulted in an away loss to Everton, as well as a stifling draw against Bournemouth last weekend. Seven minutes into extra time, Mateta saved the one point from the penalty spot. The question is whether they are in a position to save anything when the clock strikes 90 next Sunday.

Arsenal – Most things point upwards at the Emirates

For now, Arsenal have really gained a foothold. From victory to victory, top of the table in their domestic league, and dominant in Europe. On the injury front, things are suddenly looking pretty bright, if we ignore our own Martin Ødegaard. Arsenal are in a great position at the moment, and as of now, the Londoners are the team to beat.

Only one loss in the league against Liverpool, otherwise most things have gone Arsenal's way in the beginning of the season. The new signings seem to be gradually taking their place in the team, and the contributions from their new Swedish spearhead are increasing. Saka on the right wing, Trossard or Martinelli out on the right, a couple of men in the backcourt in the infirmary, and a powerful midfield. This team, led by a healthy Rice in the middle, is not easy to push around. The latest victim was Atletico Madrid, who went home to the heat with an ever-so-small lesson in their luggage. In six minutes, three balls slammed past Oblak into the cage, and the game was over. The guests were too small, and Arsenal were too good. Do we now see a team with few weaknesses for the opponent to exploit? There is little to put a finger on at the moment.

For Arteta, it's just a matter of keeping the heat on. They've caught up with Liverpool, passed them, got the nod, and are alone at the top. Three league rounds ago, a small red light was on for the gang from the capital, when they suddenly found themselves five points behind the reigning champions. Three wins for Arsenal, three losses for Liverpool, and the situation is quite different. If they manage to keep the gang relatively injury-free in the coming weeks, while continuing to ride the wave, this could be a clear lead when the Christmas roast comes on the table. Will it finally succeed?

On Sunday, Crystal Palace will visit. A team that is conceding more than before, and on which they have a solid advantage. One draw and four wins in the last five. In two of the matches, Arsenal has scored five goals. The arrows point in the same direction, and it points towards another three points for the Gunners.

Crystal Palace – A good team caught in the middle

For Palace is a good Premier League team, let there be no doubt about it. A difficult team to beat, and generally a difficult team to score against. However, in the last two league games it has looked different. As mentioned at the beginning, it was a hair's breadth that they lost at home last time against strong Bournemouth, which in that case would have given two red crosses in a row. For Palace has looked a bit disheveled in these two games. Everton deservedly won 2-1, while they were only saved by a Mateta in full fire last weekend. Five conceded in these two is somewhat alarming for a team that has its defensive structure as perhaps its most dangerous weapon.

Along with the aforementioned Mateta, it is the offensive full-backs of Crystal Palace that you should watch out for. Munoz in particular operates almost like an attacking player, and is a difficult man to catch. The right side of the red and blue, with Munoz and Sarr, is sometimes deadly. If you also manage to connect Mateta up top, you have an effective plan.

What seems a bit more uncertain now is the defensive constitution. Guehi leads the back three with stoic calm, and Henderson in the cage is consistently at work. The total is usually that you manage to keep the opposition alive, and thus are in position for a point or three if Mateta delivers the goods at the other end. The plan, however, fails if the defensive wall cracks. As I said, it has done so now in two straight matches, and then the Emirates is not necessarily the place you want to go to fix things. We think Palace will have a tough Sunday afternoon at the table kings. The negative tendency towards Arsenal in particular does not help either, and we would not be surprised if the back three becomes a five more this weekend. Glasner must try to stem all the hosts' threats, perhaps to little avail.

Conclusion – Form and flow trumps everything

Because there's something about these good teams that has picked up steam. When the momentum is reached, the system works, the team parts are ticking, yes, then they are a pain to stop. As of now, the feeling is that Arsenal have got there, it goes by itself, everyone knows their tasks, and you trust the manager and the plan for the day. This self-confidence, this inherent belief that it will work out, is every manager's dream. A machine that is so well-oiled that you can just sit back and watch it all unfold on the green grass.

The home team brings a dominant H2H into the match. Beyond that, they bring solid form, an impressive performance in the Champions League, and a spearhead who scores goals. The visitors have the latter too, but beyond that they are inferior. Sarr can have his day, so can the rest of the midfield, but we are afraid the attempts will be sparse, and a little easy to predict. Arsenal should be a few notches better in everything this Sunday.

So how do we turn this into an odds tip that gives us a calm stomach and a steady hand? First and foremost, we assume that the home team will win. The very, very, most of the odds speak for that. The odds on a clean home win are just under 1.50, and that may seem a bit too safe, or even a bit too cowardly. Because, there are goals in this Arsenal team, while the visitors have five goals in their last two. Everton scored two, Bournemouth scored three. Won't Arsenal also score at least two, on their own turf? We believe so, and suddenly we have a very playable, and tempting, variant.

Mateta is probably the man who could be a straw. A little alone against the superior force, we are afraid he will also fall short, and it will not be surprising if Arsenal keep a clean sheet this time. Arsenal have conceded three goals in their last ten matches. Those goals were scored by Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle. We will let the numbers speak for themselves.

England at 15:00: Arsenal – Crystal Palace: Home win + Over 1.5 goals total (1.77)

Alternative game

England at 15:00: Arsenal – Crystal Palace: Home win + Both teams NOT to score (2.40)

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