Arsenal–Crystal Palace

"Red dominance - No mercy in north London"

 

When Arsenal host Crystal Palace tomorrow night at 9:00 PM at the Emirates, the home team will take to the field knowing that a loss here will make Liverpool champions, and it is precisely here that I believe I have found a nice value bet.

Because where perhaps the average man in the street would think that this is not possible anyway, this is top sport and these players do not have such thoughts in their heads no matter how hopeless the starting point is at any time. We saw it most recently a week ago when Real Madrid were going to fight back after the 3-0 loss in London, none of the Real players even thought that this was impossible, and the home team Arsenal will think the same when they go out tomorrow night, if we take 3 points here then we will also put pressure on Liverpool

 

Arsenal

 

So after a wild double-header against Real Madrid where Arsenal fully deservedly advanced to the semi-finals of the Champions League, I have tried to take a closer look at why Arsenal have been so stable this year.

 

Mikel Arteta and clear playing philosophy

Arteta has built a team with a clear identity – high intensity, possession and structure. He has been given the time and support to implement his style, and although many Arsenal supporters have been upset that they are ONLY number 2. I think this Arsenal team is one of the best ever.

Young but mature squad

Players like Saka, Ødegaard, Martinelli and Saliba are young, but they play with maturity and responsibility. They are technically strong and extremely tactically educated. This is a team that has learned from last year's near-gold. They are more cynical, more focused, and they handle pressure better now.

Stable defense and good balance

Saliba and Gabriel have created a rock-solid defensive pair, and Declan Rice has given the team a completely new control in the middle of the field – both defensively with his enormous running capacity, but after being retrained as an inside runner he also has enormous offensive contributions as well. They don't necessarily have the biggest stars, but the depth in the squad makes them more flexible.

So how do Arsenal actually manage to dominate the games they play so well?

When Arsenal build up their game, the right-back often pushes high up the pitch while the left-back inverts centrally, this often gives Arsenal a 3-2 base in the centre of the pitch at the same time as they can then release their 5 offensive players high up the pitch, this creates width and depth while controlling the midfield with numerical superiority.
Now that the right side is also starting to become intact again after both Saka and Ben White have been out with long injury breaks, you can immediately see that Arsenal have got their offensive game in order again. Saka pulls wide and often isolates the opponent's back one on one. At the same time, Ødegaard finds space in the gaps and the side spaces that arise when the opponents have to pull their defense out. When you can also add White/Timber who come on overlap or support, this often forces the opponents to have to push the whole team over to one side, and then space is often opened up for Martinelli on the opposite wing.
When Arsenal lose the ball, they are extremely aggressive in recovering it. Rice and Ødegaard press the ball carrier immediately, and the wings cut off the passing angles forward in the field. This is called "counter-pressing" and teams like City and Liverpool also practice this type of pressure, this often traps the opponent in their own half and often contributes to new attacks as soon as they win the ball back. The difference between Liverpool and Arsenal in this aspect is that when Arsenal win the ball back they often work the opponents again, by circulating the ball in the team and waiting until they find the weakness where they can cut again.

Martin Ødegaard – the brain in the machine

Martin Ødegaard is the key, he constantly moves between the pressure joints of the opponents and dictates the rhythm and angles of the passing game. He has an extreme eye for spaces and combinations and he is among the very best in the world at weighting passes in through joints. Another very important aspect of Ødegaard's game is his enormous work capacity defensively, and he helps the team with both pressure and structure.
Now that Saka is back in the team you can also see that their almost telepathic abilities are right back where they were before Saka was injured and it pleases an Arsenal heart to see two such good players on the same team in one of the world's best leagues.

 

 

What about Crystal Palace?

The team that had not lost in 10 away games and had hardly conceded a goal in those games, took an early 0-2 lead away to City just ten days ago, only to completely collapse and concede five goals, so the match ended 5-2 to the light blues from Manchester. Four days later they went to Newcastle and again the goalkeeper had to retrieve five balls from the net, and this match they were regularly played off the field with 5-0 in the bag. So either they have overperformed over a longer period or have they just faced too good opposition in these two matches? I think the latter because when the season is about to draw to a close, it is easier to face teams that are placed around the middle and do not have too much to play for, versus the teams that are playing for European games next season and who will give everything to earn a place in the top 4.

Palace are also still in the FA Cup and will play the semi-final against Aston Villa next Saturday, so it is perhaps possible that Glasner rotates the team a bit in order to be as sharp as possible for the weekend? Whatever he chooses, he will have to do without Chris Richards this Wednesday when he received a red card in the 0-0 draw against Bournemouth at the weekend after receiving two yellow cards before the referee had time to blow the whistle for half-time.
Palace are safely placed in 12th place in the series and with 6 points down to 13th place, it may not matter much if they do not get 3 points in this tough away match against Arsenal.

 

 

Conclusion

Arsenal come in here as clear favorites and after today's press conference with Arteta it doesn't seem like he's planning to change much about the team that will play tomorrow, and this is probably not good news for the Palace team who might have hoped that Arsenal would think a little further ahead in time for the match against PSG in the CL semi-final.

Of course, there are never any easy matches in this league, but when Arsenal can field their supposedly strongest team against a team that comes in here with 10 goals in 2 matches against teams that I believe are far behind Arsenal in terms of quality, then I think this could be a lead-heavy night for the visitors.
The opposite match in December ended with a 1-5 victory for Arsenal and I think this could be another such type of match, and that is because Arsenal is in a crazy good period now, key players are back and then there should be such a big difference between these teams that I would not be surprised if it ends 4/5-0 here.

 

England at 21:00 Arsenal - Crystal Palace : Arsenal -1.5 (2.10)

Alternative games:

Arsenal over 2.5 team goals (2.65)

Gabriel Martinelli scores a goal (2.75)

 

I play all of these at Norsk Tipping

 

Good luck