Arsenal–Chelsea

Arsenal – Chelsea – Football – Premier League

Kick-off: Sunday, March 1st at 5:30 PM

Betting suggestion: Under 2.5 goals (2.20)

Stake: 5/10 units

Three justifications for the game proposal

1. Four of the last five matches between the teams have been goalless, with a maximum of two goals.
2. Arsenal cannot risk too much, because a loss here would be fatal in the title race.
3. Chelsea are fighting for a top five finish, and they don't necessarily need to do so away to Arsenal. A controlled points spread would be a victory in itself.

Arsenal – Chelsea: Introduction

Next Sunday, first place and fifth place will meet in another derby in the north-west of London. Between showers of rain, low-lying fog and grey brick buildings, a very interesting football match is being played, a football match that could potentially set the tone for the run-in for both teams. Arsenal are fighting tooth and nail to keep Manchester City at a comfortable distance, but there is not much that is comfortable with a gap of five points, with one more game played. Pep's team are experts at closing those gaps. Just ask Jurgen Klopp. Arteta got back on top after two somewhat uninspired draws when they beat Spurs 4-1 last weekend. A much-needed vitamin injection at this stage of the season. Chelsea, for their part, lost momentum over the last two rounds. The team was in good form, but draws against Leeds and Burnley are not enough to capture one of the golden tickets to next season's Champions League. The home game against Burnley in particular was brutal. An early lead, a massive possession advantage, only to lose control, and then also incur a red card from Fofana. Unseasonable, and possibly directly detrimental to their run towards the top five in the Premier League this season.

The match at the Emirates will be interesting for several reasons. Of course, most of it is about the race between Arsenal and Manchester City now, but it is also often at this stage of the season that Arsenal lose their footing. We have seen it over so many seasons now, this is where you concede easy goals, this is where you lose a bit of the effort that has led the team to a great position, and this is where the central pieces no longer deliver what is needed. And do we see any contours now too? Not entirely easy to say perhaps, but captain Ødegaard is not himself, and the important Saka is also not at the level you hope he will be when there are only three months left in the season. Arsenal have a defensive structure that helps the situation, and the threats of offensive set pieces we have talked about a lot. It is clear that this weight helps when the matches are to be decided. The concern, if there is one, is what you do now if, for example, Rice loses his form, or picks up an injury. The Englishman is the driving force of the team, and with varying contributions in the front line, it seems a little more fragile than it needs to be. The joy was probably great when they put Tottenham in place last weekend. And not only that, the triumph came away from home, and with that, the shoulders probably sank a few notches. If Saka is not quite at his usual level, the Swede seems to be on top of finding his feet better and better now. Gyökeres got a lot of trouble initially, but the man is about to score a considerable number of goals. Together with the contributions from Eze, albeit a bit sporadic, Arsenal have a weight they haven't had before. It's not just about Saka and Havertz anymore, they have other strings to play on. Just like Manchester City and Liverpool have had for a number of years. It's possible that it will be a decisive factor for Arsenal in the run-up to this season.

Chelsea were of course supposed to beat Burnley. Matches like this should be won by three, four goals, and confidence should only be boosted at a critical point in the season. But then it didn't quite work out that way. According to the recipe, the lead came in the form of a Joao Pedro goal early on, but then the train derailed. The chances came, but the ball wouldn't go into the cage behind Dubravka. Frustration increased, and it all culminated in Fofana losing his head and receiving a red card. A red card while still leading, and in a completely unnecessary duel. You can't act like that if this is to result in a position among England's elite.

In terms of injuries heading into the top flight, Chelsea are in a relatively comfortable situation. Yes, Fofana will have to sit out after his red involvement, while Colwill and Cucurella are injured. Three players in the back row are obviously not a desirable scenario, but Chelsea have an okay cover. It is still not ideal when you go to the Emirates. As mentioned, Chelsea are fighting for a ticket to the Champions League, and are currently the team considered to be the worst in that race. Liverpool are level on points, but perhaps have a somewhat easier schedule than the Londoners. In addition, the reds from the Beatles city have the experience of standing out these seasons. Chelsea will have to work hard for the points in the last rounds if this is to end as hoped. In that match, you will look to Palmer and Pedro. This is where the x-factor lies, and these are the types you need to stand out now. It seems a bit thin, at least when compared to Sunday's opponent. The blues need to get the train back on the rails before it is too late.

Arsenal - Chelsea: Predictions

What is the argument that this will be a goalless draw, and what is the argument that it will not be? What we do know is that Arsenal played on their confidence against Spurs, and that players like Gyökeres and Eze seem to have found form. However, we have other offensive players who seem to be further away, and not quite at their normal level. Arsenal are playing in front of their own fans, and the league title is still very much at stake.

Chelsea are fighting to finish in the top five as the final round of the league comes to a close. Two straight draws against weaker opposition were not what the team needed now, and at the same time they have some painful absences in the back ranks. Far from optimal ahead of this match.

So what do we get; Goals or not? As we mentioned at the beginning, four of the last five matches between the teams have ended relatively goalless. The reason for this may vary somewhat, after all, there have been goals between these teams before, but we may still see a pattern that is not so small. Because, Arsenal are strong on set pieces, but Chelsea are good in their own half, and thus you nullify a bit of the threat to the home team. Now Fofana is missing in this one, and that is of course a factor that can make Gabriel's working conditions in the opponent's half a bit easier. Furthermore, these are two teams that hate to lose when you stand and look each other in the eye at the center circle. There is a lot at stake in these London derbies, and perhaps more than ever this Sunday. The consequences of a loss can be fatal for both camps, and with that you can perhaps assume a somewhat more cautious approach. It is not that Arsenal must win this match in life and death, although it is of course preferable. The fight for the league title does not stand and fall this Sunday. However, it is important to avoid losses. A loss brings uncertainty, and uncertainty is cancer for title ambitions. It is not unthinkable that one therefore chooses to set a somewhat lower bar, and perhaps also consider which transitions to take to a slightly higher degree than usual.

Chelsea shouldn't lose either. A third draw on the trot won't help either, but avoiding a loss away to Arsenal could be a small victory in itself. Realising that you can be competitive against the league leaders can provide much-needed motivation for the games that still need to be played. Chelsea are a tough team to face for anyone, especially if you come up with a plan to make life miserable for the home team. The Blues will probably first and foremost try to neutralize the home team's weapons, and take the passes themselves. A potential lead will probably be defended for all it's worth.

That's really how you view the situation if Arsenal take the lead too. Arteta has a solid squad available, and there's probably more to lose than there is to gain by chasing more goals if you already have the three points in your pocket. What will be crucial is to keep the visitors at bay, and not end up behind. That happens very rarely, and almost never at the Emirates. A compact Arsenal that controls the game to 1-0 would not have surprised anyone. And who scores? If it's not the Swede with the Batman mask on top, it's Gabriel. A corner that is swung at his ice with five minutes left on the clock? Arteta would have probably relieved where he stands on the chalk!

So we land on an underdog in London this Sunday. The scenario we envision is a close and even match, where the teams measure strength, but also measure tactics and formation. If we get a match that at times resembles a chess game, it is the small things that will be decisive. Arsenal is not served by an open affair where the match picture waves back and forth, and therefore we find value in a recommendation of under 2.5 goals . The home team will probably dictate a lot of what happens, and with that we consider the chances of them getting what they want to be good. If you want to play marking, we lean quite easily in favor of the red and whites. If you prefer a slightly more hairy option, you can combine the two, and go for an underdog in combination with a home win. Enjoy the match - no one wants to lose this one!