Arnold Palmer Invitational 06-03-2025

We are staying in Florida and it is once again the time for a prestigious tournament on the PGA Tour where all the best are taking part. We are of course talking about the Arnold Palmer Invitational which is played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando. A tournament Arnold Palmer himself won in 1971. The first prize is an incredible 45 million Norwegian kroner and this tournament is probably on most people's bucket list of tournaments they want to win, something Tiger Woods has done 8 times, while in recent years Scottie Scheffler has won two of the last three years. He is starting this year to try and take his third victory, but will he be able to do it? Only Loren Roberts, Tiger Woods and Matt Every since 1966 have won back-to-back victories here, so it is certainly no easy task.

The courses and the area

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is played as a Par 72 and has a length of 7466 yards, so long-hitting players have an advantage here. The course has the same type of grass that was played on last week, in The American Express and WM Phoenix Open, namely Bermuda grass. It is often dotted with a different type of grass this early in the year, and some players play better on this than others. As mentioned, the course is long, but the importance of hitting the fairway here is as important as the length. Bay Hill is known for its thick rough and the challenges can be in line if you are too far out in it.

There are players who are consistently good tee-to-green, hit far and accurately with both the driver and irons and avoid bogeys, which has an advantage here. Therefore, we look at statistics such as Tee-to-Green of course, but also Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation (GIR), Driving Distance and a few more. If you look at what Scheffler performed last year, he was the best SG: Off-the Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green while he was no. 2 on GIR. In addition, he had the fewest putts per GIR, so this will probably be important this year as well. There are about 70 players at the start and a CUT is used at 50 players after two days. Some wind is forecast for Thursday, calm Friday and Saturday, while rain and thunder may come on Sunday.

The candidates

• Shane Lowry was tipped to be one stroke under par going into last week, but there's no doubt he's a world-class player. Lowry has played this tournament 6 times before with four MCs, a 67th place in 2023 and a 3rd place last year. Can he go all the way to the top this year? His stats are 12th place TTG, 46th place Driving Accuracy and 23rd place Approach to Green, while his putting is down to 83rd place and GIR is 140th. Lowry played a little better than this last week, but has room for improvement in some areas. Still, he finished 11th this past weekend.
• Sepp Straka was the only one who fulfilled my tips last week, and he is back in place here. The Austrian is in 10th place TTG, 11th place in the Driving Accuracy statistics and 11th place Approach the Green. He is somewhat weaker in length, but makes up for it in Greens in Regulation, because there he is second best on the Tour. Straka has played seven tournaments already in 2025 and five of them are top 15 and one is a victory in The American Express. So there is no doubt that he has had a good start to the season. Last year's season started with three MC in five attempts before the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so a shared 57th place is probably not representative of how he plays now, even though he only has MC in previous years. Things are flowing better for Straka now.
• Ludvig Åberg , the Swedish talent who has had a fantastic start to the season with a tied 5th place in The Sentry in Hawaii, and a 63 round on the first day of the Farmers Insurance Open before he got sick with some virus. He finished the tournament while losing 5kg in weight because he didn't get enough nutrition and still impressively managed to take an honorable tied 42nd place. Viking that he is, he also played at Pepple Beach, but had to withdraw after the first day when his body still wasn't working. This was probably a good idea, because 14 days later a healthy Swede played in The Genesis Invitational and won the whole tournament. If you take the season as a whole, his statistics are not much because of the illness, but if we look at the two without the illness, he is one of the best in all respects. If you have to find any weaknesses, it has to be a little bit on putting and a little bit on Driving Accuracy. But Åberg can easily win here too, because he is that good.
• Rory McIlroy has only played in two tournaments on the PGA Tour this year, but that's enough when you win the first one and finish 17th in the second. Everyone has heard of Rory McIlroy so he doesn't need much more introduction. The 35-year-old from Northern Ireland has 27 wins on the PGA Tour and is one of the most successful in the field. He has played this tournament ten times and in eight of those he has finished in the top 13, while five have been top 6, with a win and a 2nd place being the best. Last year he finished 21st, which is his second worst result, but with this year's season starting he is of course one of the favorites. During 2025 the statistics look like this; TTG he is the best, Off-the-Tee he is the best, Driving Distance no. 2, Scrambling no. 3, Driving Accuracy 125 and Putting 93. So if he is a little smaller in the rough and puts a little better, he will be hard to beat.
• Justin Thomas is also a man I see potential in here considering how he has played this year, and not least the lengths of his shots that he has worked a lot on in the last six months. He has played five tournaments this year with the results T26-2-T48-T6-T9, which is more than acceptable. Thomas is 6th best in SG: Tee-to-Green, 5th best Approach the Green and 26th best in GIR. Driving Accuracy is not top 100, while his putting is no. 67. Thomas has not won in a long time, but his next victory is getting closer and closer, and last year Thomas was no. 12 here and no. 21 in 2023, but he is in better shape now.

All these players here are good enough to make it into the top 10 and even win on a good day, because that's what everyone in this field depends on. If something doesn't work out, you'll quickly move down the leaderboard.

Conclusion

This is one of the biggest tournaments on the Tour, and 48 of the top 50 in the world are starting here, so I doubt we'll get a surprise at the end like we did last weekend. The battle for victory in this tournament will probably be between the very best, with Scottie Scheffler of course the biggest favorite. Of the five I've listed as candidates for top spots above, I have faith that a Swede will once again get involved in the lead. Åberg is a young super talent who will win a lot in the future if he stays injury-free. He's used his time well leading up to this event, and hasn't just been lying on the couch after Tiger Wood's victory at Torrey Pines. The course should suit him well, so my tip this week is:

Golf at 1:40 PM: Ludvig Åberg top 10 (2.60)

Alternative bets:
Golf at 1:40 PM: Rory McIlroy top 5 (2.60)
Golf at 1:40 PM: Sepp Straka top 20 (2.30)

As usual, there will also be tips on H2H duels during the weekend, and you will find these on our Oddslisten. You can also join us in Discord to discuss golf and other games all the time.