Arminia Bielefeld - Bayer Leverkusen 01-04-2025

Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen meet in an exciting DFB-Pokal semi-final on Tuesday night. Leverkusen, reigning Bundesliga champions and last year's cup winner, are chasing their second straight final, while 3rd division side Arminia Bielefeld have nothing to lose here in their quest for a sensational place in the final.

Arminia Bielefeld – the underdog with faith in a miracle

Arminia Bielefeld have already surprised everyone by knocking out three Bundesliga teams on their way to the semi-finals, most recently with an impressive 2-1 win over Werder Bremen in the quarter-finals. Although they had the margins on their side in that match – with Werder creating more than 1.5 xG and three big chances – the team has shown that they can bite back against stronger opposition. In that sense, the team had the 'wind' and the fans with them, dominating at times against Werder.

Under the leadership of Michel Kniat, Bielefeld have had an impressive season and are currently in 4th place in the 3rd league, just one point behind promotion qualification. Arminia's main problem this season has been dropping important points against weak opposition, most recently shown at the weekend when they drew with Hannover 96 II. But it is of course a completely different approach, in terms of expectations, motivation and preparation, to a DFB-Pokal semi-final. They have already impressed everyone and everything by knocking out Werder, Freiburg and Union Berlin. They have everything to win and nothing to lose here, and in that sense no pressure on them. That can do a lot to a team.

As for the team, Arminia is expected to field the same eleven that beat Werder Bremen. Kersken will probably be trusted behind a defense led by Schneider and Felix. In midfield, Schreck and Russo can form a solid shield in front of the defense, while Kania and Corboz will try to create dangers in attack. The latter in particular had a perfect match against Werder Bremen, and must have at least an equally good match here.

Key statistics:

• Has won 7 of their last 9 matches in all tournaments.
• Undefeated at home in 5 straight matches (4 wins, 1 draw).
• Have knocked out 3 Bundesliga teams in the DFB-Pokal this season.
• Has not kept a clean sheet at home in its last 5 matches.
• Scored 7 goals and only conceded 2 on their way to the semi-finals.

Bayer Leverkusen – the favorite with pressure on them

Leverkusen had to fight hard to reach the semi-finals. In the quarter-finals they were 0-2 down against FC Köln, who play in the 2. Bundesliga, but saved themselves thanks to Patrik Schick's late equalizer and a win in extra time. Leverkusen ran that match in every way with xG 2.28 and 79% possession, but FC Köln have shown that they can close the gap and be effective in front of goal. It almost worked, but as we all know, you can't write off Leverkusen before the final whistle. Xabi Alonso's team has thus shown both strength and vulnerability in the cup. The team that seemed unbeatable last season has shown far more weaknesses this season, and on a bad day could struggle here.

In the Bundesliga, Leverkusen are fighting for both the league title and a place in next season's Champions League, although the battle for the league title is starting to hang by a thread. They have won their last two league matches (4-3 against Stuttgart and 3-1 against Bochum), but they lost their previous three matches and have conceded seven goals in these last five matches. The match against Stuttgart was in every way a typical Leverkusen match, where they were down 3-1 until the 61st minute and one thought they were heading for 4 straight losses, but turned it around in an absolutely incredible way. On the away field, the team has been very strong this season with 7 wins in the last 11 matches in all competitions. In the Bundesliga, they are actually undefeated on the away field with a PPG of 2.23. The Arminia camp is fully aware of this and it will be a nice extra motivation (if they even need it) to be the first team to beat Leverkusen on the road this season (then looking past the CL loss to Bayern).

The injury situation in Leverkusen is a challenge, however. Tapsoba, Hermoso and Belocian are out, which means that Hincapie, Tah and Mukiele probably form an improvised defensive three. It has worked perfectly well, but in 2 games it has become 4 backwards. In attack, both Terrier and Tella are unavailable, while Wirtz is uncertain. This means that Alonso will probably focus on Adli, Garcia and Schick/Boniface up top (possibly both as against Bochum), supported by a solid midfield with Granit Xhaka and Palacios.

Key statistics:

• Has won 7 of its last 11 away games in all competitions.
• The last 4 matches between the teams in Bielefeld have ended with Leverkusen winning.
• Scored 7 goals in their last 2 games, but conceded 7 in their last 5.
• Has played 4 of his 5 DFB-Pokal matches against teams from lower divisions.
• Has won its last 2 Bundesliga matches after 3 straight losses.

Can Arminia pull off another cup bomb?  

Arminia Bielefeld don't need to prove anything here, with knockouts of 3 Bundesliga teams already under their belt. They will try to keep the match even for as long as possible, and really need to have both luck and a perfect day at work. Leverkusen's offensive power will do everything to kill the tension early and avoid a nerve-wracking showdown, and anything other than a Leverkusen-dominated match will be very surprising. Historically, Leverkusen has had the upper hand in this duel, but that doesn't mean the world in a semi-final context. Arminia, however, has not kept a clean sheet at home in its last five games, and probably won't be able to do so here either. You get sky-high odds on Arminia winning here (15.00), cup is cup, so it's tempting to put a low sum on it just for fun. But, let's look for real valuable bets:

• Bayer Leverkusen to win + over 2.5 goals (1.62): It is natural to look for Leverkusen to win first and foremost, which is available at odds of 1.19. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.47, and if we combine these we land at 1.62. It is a very good bet, especially considering that Arminia has over 2.5 goals in the last 4 of 5 games, while Leverkusen has over 2.5 goals in the last 3 of 5. Leverkusen has shown vulnerability at the back, and could well do it again here, but should have more than enough to outwit Arminia more than once, in addition to securing a final ticket.
• Both teams to score (2.15): Both teams to score is undoubtedly an interesting option. Arminia has a fantastic stadium and home fans, and can achieve a lot on a good day. Against 3 worthy Bundesliga teams they have scored 7 goals and conceded 2. Leverkusen are of course a notch above the other Bundesliga opponents Arminia has faced, but again, with a somewhat weaker defense and the favorite stamp, we can easily see an Arminia goal here. Combined with the expectation that Leverkusen scores at least 1 goal, this bet could easily be the high odds winner of the evening.
• Corner bets: There are a few different variations of corner bets that can be tried here, so we'll put the options under one umbrella. We'll start with total corners:
  - Over 9.5 corners (1.90): Arminia averages quite high in the league on corners, where they are at 6.6 corners for and 4.2 against at home. In the last 5 matches in the league, the average is 10.4 corners per match. In the cup (then we look at the last 3 matches against Bundesliga opposition), Arminia averages 4 corners for and 6 corners against. All matches have an average of 10 corners. If we look at Leverkusen, they are high on the away field with 6 corners on average for and 3.85 corners against. In Leverkusen's last 5 league matches, there have been 10.6 corners on average, where Leverkusen has an average of 8 corners for per match. And with this in mind we can also look at two other viable options:
  – Arminia over 2.5 corners (1.68).
  – Leverkusen over 6.5 corners (1.98).
  The latter option can be adjusted down to 5.5 corners for 1.58 in value, which is also a nice bet. But there is a good chance of a few corners in this match, so all the options are solid here.
• Leverkusen with over 60% ball possession (X): I can't find odds for this option at the time of writing, but check against the start of the match on the ball possession option. High ball possession is expected from Leverkusen, and in the last 5 league matches they averaged 63.6% ball possession. In the cup context (again looking more closely at the last 3 matches against Bundesliga opposition) Arminia has had the ball 40% of the time. To get usable odds you may have to go up to 70% ball possession for Leverkusen here, but it could be fine with a Leverkusen that has patience in the build-up game.

The prediction here is that Leverkusen will secure a place in the final, but they will have a tough match. Arminia can make life difficult for them, but the difference in quality will probably be decisive. Goal bets are a little more uncertain here, but good as alternatives. Then the main idea is to score goals both ways and then overall. Marking bets are fine in that sense, but here the Cologne match is fresh in the memory, and a cup is a cup as they always say. Corner bets are an exciting option in this match, in a match picture that is predicted to be dominated by Leverkusen with a good number of corners, and precise counterattacks for Arminia which can also result in 2-3 corners. The main bet is here:

DFB-Pokal at 20:45 - Arminia Bielefeld - Bayer Leverkusen: Over 9.5 corners (1.90)

Alternative game:

DFB-Pokal at 20:45 – Arminia Bielefeld – Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen to win + over 2.5 goals (1.62)