Sinner – Bublik 02-09 – 2025

Round of 16 in the last Grand Slam tournament of the year, at the venerable Arthur Ashe Stadium. A noisy crowd, surprising results, tired and frustrated players after a long season – everything is in place for us as television viewers to get an interesting match.

Sinner is indisputably the world's best hard court player, but is he unbeatable? He faces a Bublik who may be in the form of his life – in fact, it's only been a little over two months since Bublik defeated Sinner on the grass in Halle.

Jannik Sinner

A man seemingly without weaknesses. He is world number one for a reason. He hits hard and precisely, has a fierce serve – and he moves extremely well on the tennis court. From his childhood and (early) youth he was among Italy's greatest slalom talents, he was even national champion – and here lies much of the answer to the enormously good movement he has carried over to the tennis court.

If you have to pick on something about Sinner, it's the net and volleyball game that's worth mentioning. It's not bad, but it's certainly not quite up there with the very best in that field.

If you're stuck in a pure baseline duel with Sinner, you'll lose 9/10 times. To quote Ben Shelton, another hard-hitting guy, after their meeting at Wimbledon earlier this summer: "I've never seen anything like it. There is nothing comparable on the tour. Playing against him, it's like everything is twice as fast."

Alexander Bublik

The Bublik Enemy. A ball artist with the power of a gorilla on speed. He can play fast and hard, has an enormous understanding of the game and the ability to vary the game at the right times.

An absolutely insane sensitivity in his strokes. Brilliant drop shots, forearm serves, a forehand that is so powerful and precise that he can dictate the game against just about anyone – and he has the Bublik Bullet Backhand.

Skill-wise, Bublik is at the top of the world. And with the unpredictability of his game, anyone can be knocked out. So why isn't he among the best on the ATP tour? He has a tendency to "lose it". Get unfocused, and we've often seen him more interested in being a showman than winning matches - and that's punishing at the top level, no matter how good you are.

Conclusion:

Bublik is in great form, not having been broken once in his first three matches at this year's US Open. Sinner, on the other hand, struggled at times against Canadian Shapovalov in the previous match, getting broken three times and losing the first set.

It's hard to hold your own against a man like Sinner, a man with no obvious weaknesses, but it's possible. If Bublik can continue his rock-solid serve, as well as vary his game wisely by getting Sinner to the net – then this could be a much more even match than the bookmakers think. Bublik simply has to avoid getting into too many pure baseline duels – and he has the skills to do that.

Another thing worth noting;

On hard courts, Sinner has won 83% of his points on first serve in 2025, and 61% on second serve. Against Bublik, he will likely go hard on the first serve, given the skills of the Kazakh, so it is not impossible that we will see a lot of second serves from Sinner.

I don't think Sinner is going to waltz over Bublik, and we're playing:

Tennis at 01:00: Sinner – Bublik: over 31.5 games (1.68)

Alternative games:

Tennis 02-09 at 01:00: Sinner – Bublik: Bublik +2.5 sets (2.05)

Tennis 02-09 at 01:00: Sinner – Bublik: Over 33.5 games (1.95)