Almeria - Real Oviedo 07-06-2025

Will this be done before the party starts?

It's time for what many feel is the biggest night of the year in Spanish club football outside La Liga: the playoff semi-final between Almería and Real Oviedo. Two teams with very different backgrounds, but with the same dream: promotion to the top flight. Almería has spent the season building an almost impregnable home ground, but now comes to the match without its most important goalscorer. Real Oviedo has surfed into the playoff with enormous self-confidence and experience from last year's playoff, and dreams of reliving old glory days. In the southern sunshine, in front of a packed Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, we will find out whether the home advantage makes up for the lack of the top scorer, or whether an Oviedo in flux can secure a place before the return leg in Asturias.

Almería – unbeaten at home, but without their top scorer

Almería made it to the playoffs in a desperate attempt after a season marked by both impressive home form and periods of chaos. The team finished sixth, but especially at home they have been virtually invincible: only one defeat in 21 home league games this season, with 13 wins and 7 draws. This means they have built a fort at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos – and it is here that they hope to lay the foundations for a playoff final place.

Coach Rubi has made the team appear very solid at home. In the closing stages of the season, they beat Tenerife 2-0 in a must-win game, and they have developed a collective confidence and discipline that has been the key. Defensively, Almería has been solid, with the stopper duo Juan Brandáriz and Rodrigo Ely as solid pillars, and goalkeeper Fernando Martínez has made several crucial saves at home.

But there is no escaping the big question: How will Almería score goals without Luis Suárez? The Colombian striker has been called up to the national team for the Copa América, and it is a loss that hurts a team that has long relied on his goal-scoring prowess. Suárez has scored 27 goals this season – almost half of the team’s total output. Without him, Rubi will have to find other solutions, and eyes will be on Adri Embarba and Largie Ramazani, both of whom have shown flashes of goal-scoring prowess but have been far less consistent throughout the season. Rubi is expected to adjust to a more cautious and structured approach in this first semi-final – focusing on keeping clean sheets and exploiting set pieces and transitions.

Almería's offensive strength has been to threaten the back with fast wings, but the absence of Suárez means they have to rely even more on the collective. A key will be whether they can involve Iñigo Eguaras and Lucas Robertone centrally, so that the team gets the ball quickly in the long direction - against an Oviedo that rarely gives up much space.

Real Oviedo – continuity, experience and playoff mentality

On the other side is a Real Oviedo team that has played with composure and confidence throughout the spring. They finished the league in third place, just two points behind direct promotion, and went undefeated in their last ten games with seven wins and three draws. Oviedo have used the experience from last season's playoff finals - where they were just one goal away from promotion - to build a mentality where the team thrives on pressure and knows what is required in such games.

Coach Veljko Paunović has found a balance between experienced leaders and young up-and-coming players. Captain Dani Calvo and defensive partner David Costas have been rock solid in central defence, and goalkeeper Leo Román has delivered at a high level, especially in the final stages of the season. In midfield, veteran Santi Cazorla pulls the strings, and his passing foot and composure have been a gift to the younger players in the team. Up front, Haissem Hassan has been the big profile this season. The Frenchman was recently voted the team's best player, and despite minor injury problems, he is expected to be ready for this match. His combination of speed, technique and breakthrough power makes him Oviedo's most dangerous weapon.

Daniel Paraschiv and Borja Bastón have contributed important goals, and the team has often varied between 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 formations – but always with a focus on defensive balance. Oviedo are known for being one of the most solid away teams in the league, with only three defeats in 21 away games and the league's second-best defensive record on foreign turf. The team is structured, comfortable lying low and exploiting transitions, and they have an impressive ability to kill the tempo when they are ahead.

Battle scene – who dictates the premises?

The match is expected to be tight and tactical. Almería will want to control the game at home, but without Suárez they will probably have to be more cautious and patient. They will try to control the game for long periods, but there is also a danger of them becoming a little too passive and letting Oviedo dictate the rhythm, especially if they fail to press and break through early. Almería's greatest strength will be set pieces and transitions - they have scored from over 20 percent of their corners at home this season, and both Ely and Brandáriz are strong in the head.

Oviedo come in with a comfortable away strategy, where they tend to stay compact, let the home team have the ball, and aim to steal the win on a transition or set piece. Paunović knows that an away goal can be worth its weight in gold before the return match in Asturias, but at the same time he doesn't want to take unnecessary chances. Oviedo has only conceded 19 goals away from home all season, and has withstood intense pressure against the best on several occasions. An x-factor will be Hassan – if he manages to create an advantage and chaos on the wing, he can open up an Almería team that is not used to being down at home.

Betting alternatives – where is the value in the market?

The market has naturally made Almería the tight favourite at home, but the odds have risen significantly after Suárez was confirmed out. There is great value in considering alternatives to a home win, especially considering Oviedo have both better form and more playoff experience. A draw and away win are the most likely options.

Goal markets: This has been a season characterised by solid defences – both teams have under 2.5 goals in 64 per cent of their games, and playoff games in Spain have traditionally been cautious, especially in the first leg. Both statistics and history therefore suggest that under 2.5 goals is the most valuable starting point.

Both teams to score: There is value in no here, given that both teams have had periods where they have been solid at the back, and that there is a lot of risk involved in conceding the first goal. Oviedo have only conceded goals in two of their last seven away games, while Almería have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five home games.

Cards and Corners Market: With so much at stake and two teams that both know how to play cynically, there is reason to expect a high number of free kicks and potentially more yellow cards. Oviedo in particular have been involved in games with a lot of cards when playing away. The corners market can also be considered, especially at Almería, who produce a lot of corners at home.

Conclusion – everything is set for a new playoff thriller

This will be a duel between an Almería that wants to exploit the home field advantage and a Real Oviedo that comes in with both self-confidence, form and experience. The loss of Luis Suárez means that Almería loses its most dangerous weapon, and the team must rely on teamwork and set pieces. Oviedo can play on the result and wait for their opportunities. With two teams that rarely take unnecessary chances in the first leg of a double clash, there is much to suggest a goalless and very even affair.

Everything points to one thing:

Segunda División playoff at 21:00: Almería - Real Oviedo: Over 2.5 goals (1.65)

Alternative games:

Segunda División playoff at 21:00: Almería - Real Oviedo: Draw or Oviedo (X2) (1.83)

Segunda División playoff at 21:00: Almería - Real Oviedo: Both teams score - No (1.76)