Adelaide Utd W – Central Coast Mariners W 08-03-2025

Here we may have found a well-hidden treasure. On Saturday morning, in-form Adelaide United host Central Coast Mariners, and although the home team should be clear favorites, it doesn't seem like the bookmaker completely agrees with us. So then we just have to say thank you and bow out.

Adelaide United – An underrated team

For the second weekend in a row, we think the bookmakers are not giving Adelaide enough credit. Last weekend they were well over 3.00 in odds, and again this time we think there is good value in an Adelaide win. Because according to the odds this should be a wide open game, which I think is wrong.

Last weekend we chose a half-hearted approach, but this time we won't let the high odds scare us. Adelaide has shown us time and time again that they deliver quality on the pitch and pick up points, even in difficult matches. The home team is actually climbing towards the top of the table, the exact opposite of where they were last year. In last year's table, the home team ended up in 12th place, but this year they have been nothing but a joy to watch. Now the team is actually in 3rd place.

Adelaide's form could hardly be better, as they are an impressive 3-2-0 in their last five games. Not only that, they have actually scored in their last 13 games, averaging 1.8 goals per game. It seems like they can find the net no matter who they play.

As I said, I tipped UB in the match against Wellington Phoenix last weekend, when they were at 3.60 in odds to win. I thought this was completely wrong, but unfortunately I was scared by the high odds. The match ended with total dominance, and a 3-1 win in favor of Adelaide, even with a penalty miss. This makes me even more confident about a bet on this match.

While much of the focus has been on Adelaide's dangerous attacking trio of Healy, Worts and Dawber, it was a new player who provided the entertainment of late; right winger Lucia Leon. And after two goals last time, and a total of three goals so far this year, she will be a player to watch going forward.

But it is no secret that it is the attack that I value second with this team. Because here it is not always about keeping a clean sheet, as long as you score more goals than the opponent. Because the home team is definitely not a defensive team, they concede a lot, but manage to score more than they concede. This is a perfect starting point when we like to bet on goals. And therefore over 1.5 goals for the home team or both teams to score are good alternatives in this match.

Central Coast Mariners – on the verge of three straight losses

It looked bright for a long time for the yellow-clad team, but that was before they started throwing away points. The guests are coming off a surprising loss at home against WSW. They were not in top form and ended up conceding two goals in the last minutes of the match. It may look like the team is about to enter a dark tunnel with several straight losses in a row. They are currently in 6th place, but it won't be long before they continue to hand out 3-pointers.

CCM is mainly a defensive team, scoring few goals and conceding even fewer. Fortunately, CCM's women's team is doing a little better than the men's team, but there have been similarities in the teams' playing styles. And like their counterparts on the men's side, the women also need points, and therefore there is a certain risk that they will fall short in this match.

In their last five matches, the visitors have gone 2-1-2, with two losses in a row now. The team is averaging just 2.4 goals per match, which is relatively low in Australia, which also confirms the visitors' playing style. In fact, they have only conceded an average of 1.1 goals per match they have played so far.

But there is one name that is worth mentioning, and that is Jade Pennock. The right-winger can be incredibly dangerous when she gets the chance. So far she has registered four goals and two assists. The former Birmingham City player has shown that she can help her team when it is really needed.

What is fairly certain here is that the away team will have a tough time. Adelaide are in form, and this year's edition has impressed me much more than what CCM has shown so far. And to me it seems like the bookmakers are basing their bets a bit too heavily on last year.

The value lies with the home team

When you get odds of 2.30 on a home win it is a very tempting choice. As described above, Adelaide face a team that has struggled in recent games, even against inferior opposition. It will be tough for the visitors to get points in this game, and I suspect they will go home empty-handed.

Goal bets on the home team are often a good choice, but when they face a team that only concedes 1.1 goals on average per game, a goal bet becomes a bit scary. A mark bet in favor of the home team is more in my thoughts. It is probably not unrealistic that we can get a 1-0 result in this game. If the goal comes early there is always a chance for more, but if it comes late, the home team is unlikely to maintain their intense pressure. Then the game can quickly end in 1-0.

Here you can of course go for 1X to secure yourself even more, but I feel the value lies here;

Australia 9.45am: Adelaide United W v Central Coast Mariners W: Adelaide United W to win (2.30)