A-League: 1st round

It's happening next Friday. The day we crossed off the calendar last May, when the referee blew the Grand Final. The day that is always the highlight of the autumn; namely the opening of the A-League season.

And the opening of the A-League season means the opening of the most entertaining league in the world. And even more importantly; the opening of the season in the league that has given us the most value for money. Because we dare to say that no one knows this league better than us. Because even though people have gradually started to open their eyes to this gem, we have been close since 2012. And that will benefit you in the form of free betting tips and in-depth analyses.

The first round of the league is always scary, regardless of the league. But due to the unusually high rotation of players, the A-League is perhaps a bit scarier than others. We have seen the same thing happen every year, for over 10 years now; the very best players go abroad after the end of the season, while the others rotate within the league. This allows teams to go from "The Wooden Spoon" one year, to the Grand Final the next. And if we have the knowledge of who is best prepared to start, we also have the opportunity to take the inside track on the bookmakers.

Because no one had imagined that Auckland would win the league title at the first attempt last year. Or that Wellington would collapse completely after the good season the year before. Not to mention Central Coast Mariners. From league title to bottom place. And such examples are nothing new. In fact, it is quite common in a completely unusual league like this. And that is why we love the A-League. But a small sliver of joy is that Western Utd is not starting. They were unable to meet the financial requirements, and have therefore withdrawn both the men's and women's teams. Too bad, because the former champion team has been a splash of color ever since they entered the A-League a few years ago.

But let's take a look at the first round of the series. I'll try to say something briefly about each game, and each team, but my main game is the series opener. So it gets a little more attention than the others;  

Adelaide United – Sydney FC

It's cool that the organizers have chosen this particular match as the series opener. Because the matches between Adelaide and Sydney have a habit of being very entertaining. 13 of the last 13 have ended with BTS + over 2.5 goals, and 12 of the last 13 have ended with over 2.5 goals. There are so many goals in this match that it has almost been too much to calculate interest to put money on over bets in various variations. But is there reason to believe that this trend will not continue?

Not really. It's the season opener, and they can sometimes live their own lives. But beyond that, everything indicates that we'll get 90 minutes of party football here. In addition, two teams meet who failed to deliver as expected last year, and who know that they should be at the top this year. Three lost points at the start could be decisive, and therefore I think both teams will go on the attack. As they always do. But note that Carl Veart is no longer on the Adelaide coaching bench. He was offensive in his thinking, and he was good at letting young players go. But there are things that indicate that Airton Andrioli is cut from the same breed. He comes from the youth department of Adelaide, and in that sense should know the players well. We believe/hope offensive football is in Adelaide's DNA, and that we will therefore get more of the same this year.

Looking at this year's squad, there are a couple of names worth mentioning. Especially on the home team. Once again, Adelaide's big son returns home, after a short stay in Saudi Arabia. This will be the fourth time Craig Goodwin plays for Adelaide Utd. But the national team profile will go straight into the left wing, with the captain's armband, and will be first in all of all set pieces. So we can only hope he still has some powder left in his boots. He is 33 years old.

But it doesn't stop there. Adelaide has also brought in an exciting playmaker in Juan Muñiz. There is great excitement about what the Spaniard can achieve, but it is worth noting that he is also 33 years old. And left wing. But my tip is that one of these two takes the middle, or right wing. Because there is a vacancy there now that another big profile has packed his bags and left.

Zach Clough made 79 appearances for Adelaide, but now it was time to move on. And in Malaysia he has already managed two goals in four games. And alongside seasoned mainstays like Isaias and Javi Lopez, Clough leaves a void, both on the pitch and in the dressing room. But Vriends, Kitto, Alagich, Folami, Jovanovic, Dukuly, Pierias and Ayoubi are still there, and they have plenty of options offensively.

If we look at the away team, we see a team that has changed drastically since last year. Big names like Klimala, Redmayne, Burgess, Segecic, Caceres, Sena, Gurd and not least; Douglas Costa have left. So here Sydney has to field a new team, in a tough away game, in a series opener. Not optimal.

But they have also spent money. As they always do. And there is extra excitement surrounding Al Hassan Toure. The man, with a past at Adelaide, has been in Turkey, France and the USA, without success. And now he is back in the A-League. His speed and technique will give us many enjoyable moments throughout this year's season. But I am really looking forward to seeing Abel Walatee. The youngster comes from Western Utd, and this is a winger you have to keep an eye on. Extremely fast, and full of tricks.

In addition to the two mentioned, Sydney has brought in a whole bunch of players. It's hard to say who will start from the start, and who will need some time to get up to speed. But if we know Sydney right, and not least Ufuk Talay, then there will be goals and plenty of entertainment. And that's why we have to put a little money on the following bets;

Australia at 10:00: Adelaide Utd - Sydney Fc: BTS + over 2.5 goals (1.82)✅

Other matches from the 1st round of the league

Furthermore, I will try to be brief. Even though it is not that easy. Because there is something about the A-League that fascinates so much. Few teams in the league make it easy to get an overview, in addition to the fact that the teams love to attack. The level can be discussed, but isn't entertainment what we live for? Let's look at the rest of the matches in the 1st round of the series;

Brisbane Roar – Macarthur Fc

I should know better than to believe Brisbane Roar. The chaos club from the east coast rarely delivers on their promises. Even in the years when things have looked bright, they have managed to screw it up. And this year could easily be one of those years.

For one thing, they have done exciting things in the transfer market, but they have also gotten rid of Ruben Zadkovich. Michael Valkanis has been given the heavy responsibility of leading this group, so it remains to be seen how long he will be able to sit. The high lords in the corridors of power are not known for being particularly patient.

But it will be fun to see what James McGarry can do from his full-back position. He has done well in Scotland, and will take both the level and culture easily, given that he has many years behind him in this league, and is from New Zealand. But who will score the goals now that Jelacic, Berenguer and Abubakar have left?

As for Macarthur FC, it will be exciting to see how this year's edition turns out. A lot was about Germain in the first part of the season, and after he left, it was Jakolis who was the team's most important player. Now both have left, and perhaps space has been cleared for Oliverira to break through. Otherwise, it's fun to see that the Sydney duo Brattan/Caceres are reunited. In addition, it will be exciting to see what Dong-Won Ji can do. A completely uncharted territory for us.

Brisbane against Macarthur is always difficult to predict. And in a series opener it gets even worse. But six of the last six have ended with BTS + over 2.5 goals, so the story is rich in goals here too. In addition, Brisbane is without a win in 8 of the last 8 internal meetings. And we know that Macarthur is often better away from home than at home. They play football that becomes extra effective when they get to counterattack against teams that are unbalanced. Because at home they often have to control matches, and that suits them badly. So maybe the value lies with Macarthur this time too?

We don't know. Because even though it's tempting to play on the away team, Brisbane Roar is 6-2-0 in friendly matches, where they have beaten Newcastle Jets and Central Coast Mariners, among others, and played a draw against Auckland. So it's possible that something is going on. But Macarthur has also shown promising signs. They are in the AFC Champions League 2, and there they beat Beijing Guoan 3-0 last time. So for lack of better suggestions, we choose to follow history and statistics;

Australia at 12:05: Brisbane Roar - Macarthur Fc: BTS + over 2.5 goals (1.78)❌

Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne City

We move on to Saturday, and here we have the team we have perhaps been most looking forward to seeing; namely WSW. We proclaimed them outsiders last year, without them fully fulfilling their promise. And now that Milanovic has gone to Aberdeen, we dare not do the same. He was by far the team's best player, and will be missed, even though they have brought in Barbarouses.

But this year's team still looks exciting. Kraev is still here, and he played with Barbarouses in Wellington in 2024. So they probably already have a relationship. In addition, we should remember that Brandon Borrello is still here. A class player. And when Stajic has reinforced with both Ugarkovic and Thurgate in the middle, the midfield looks strong too. It's possible that Ugarkovic is on the mend, but Thurgate was one of the league's best players last year, and here they have a very good box-to-box player.

Then it will be exciting to see how they will look at the back. Tea-Wook struggled with too many injuries to be missed, so there is much to suggest that the back line will be the same as last year, except at left back, as Jack Clisby has left. . Then it remains to be seen if Barbarouses and Kuol can replace Milanovic, Antonsson, Sapsford and Mata. If they can do that, there is a good chance that WSW will have a very good season this year.

Melbourne City, for their part, made some mistakes last year. They relied on Tilio, Nabbout and Leckie to stay healthy, and thus manage without too many new names. It didn't go as they hoped. And so it surprises me a little that they have sold more than they have bought this year. Jeggo has retired, Cohen, Tilio and Ugarkovic have left and we know Nabbout and Leckie are injured. This looks suspiciously similar to the year before.

In addition, Max Caputo did not deliver as expected last year. The plan was that he was mature enough, and that City did not need to replace Maclaren, when he left for India. That plan also failed. And that is why they have brought in Takeshi Kanamori. The Japanese, who came from Avispa Fukuoka, has been given the number 10 shirt and is probably the man who will be responsible for the goals this year. Because we already know that City is solid at the back. It is up front that they have struggled.

So what little we know is based on last year, and there are things that suggest that City will be just as solid at the back, and that WSW will continue to base their game on the offensive. But we don't know what WSW will look like going forward without Milanovic, and so we land on the following bets;

Australia 08:00: WS Wanderers - Melbourne City: Over 4.5 corners to WSW (1.65)❌

Melbourne Victory - Auckland Fc

Nobody had imagined that Auckland FC would win the series last year. On the first try. Now, they didn't win the Grand Final, but they still delivered a debut season to the mark. And well then. But what will the difficult 2nd season be like?

It is natural to think that Steve Corica chooses the same tactics as last year. If so, there is no need to pop popcorn for Auckland's matches. Because there it was safety first, the advantage behind the ball and rather 1-0 than 4-3. But are they ready to run another year with the same tactics? By and large yes, with a small exception. Because even though they have sold few, and bought even fewer, they have lost their goalkeeper. Alex Paulsen was on loan from Bournemouth, and was the league's best goalkeeper last year. Just like he was for Wellington Phoenix the year before. But Paulsen has gone back to England, and another former Wellington goalkeeper has come in. Namely; Olli Sails. He went to Perth after the successful season in New Zealand, but there he completely failed. And now he will try for the reigning league champion. It does not have to go well.

For the home team, last year's season was a letdown. It started with a strong squad, and the league's most exciting coach in Patrick Kisnorbo, but when he surprisingly left for Japan after only a few rounds of the series, Victory never managed to recover. They did reach the Grand Final, but there they lost 1-0 to arch-rivals Melbourne City. But can they go all the way this year?

I don't think so. They've lost Machac, Bos, Arzani and Teague, and even though they've brought in Jelacic, Mata, Grimaldi and a lot of other exciting names, I don't really see who's going to score the goals. Vergos is still there, but Foranroli has moved into an administrative role at the club. He'll be missed. Now there's a chance that some of the newcomers will fly out of the starting block, but I think we have a team that needs time to build relationships.

But they should be able to beat any team. Especially at home. And against a weakened Auckland they should be favorites. Which they are to a certain extent. But Auckland is difficult to break down, and I see no value in a marking bet here. Nor a goal bet, if the away team plans to park the bus. But based on last year we know that Victory was the team that finished most often, both on goal and from distance, and against a team that will be low, at least until they are behind, there is good value in the following bets;

Australia at 10:35: Melbourne Victory – Auckland Fc: Melbourne Victory most corners (1.70)❌

Perth Glory - Wellington Phoenix

The distance derby is always a highlight. Especially for the home team. Because with 5271km between the cities, this is one of the longest travel routes in the world. It takes time zones to get to the game, and for Perth this advantage has been welcome. Because they haven't had much else to hit the table with.

But this year's team looks better than it has in a long time. Because although Perth was once a top contender, when Castro, Taggart, Keogh and Petratos were rampaging, Perth has recently appeared more like a patchwork of mercenaries, and that is not the way to build something sustainable. And that is exactly why this year's transfers look sensible.

Because they have brought home Birighitti, who last won league gold with Central Coast Mariners. In addition, they have brought in the mid-stopper from the same club; namely Brian Kaltak. Captain of the team that won The Double. Otherwise, established players such as Sulemani, Kucharski, Sutton, Wootton, Popovic and Bozinovski have come through the doors. These are players who know the level in the A-League, and who can contribute from day 1.

The list of players who have left Perth is long. Very long. But I would argue that no one will be missed. It's a bold claim, but Taggart and Wales are still there, and together with the new arrivals, this year's Perth team could actually bite the bullet. At least on home soil.

Unfortunately, things are not looking so bright for Wellington Phoenix. The team that took an impressive 2nd place in 2024, never managed to follow up. They lost key players then, and new players have left this time too. The most serious thing is losing Barbarouses. He was behind almost everything that was created offensively last year. And so far they have only brought in a few players, and Mileusnic and Najjarine are really not good enough to turn this ship around, even though they have many years of experience.

Now it must be said that there is a lot of excitement about Ifeanyi Eze. The Nigerian has an exotic CV, and scored 15 goals last year, but he is an unwritten leaf at this level. And I am also a little excited about Italiano. The coach was very honest at the previous press conference, where he tried to explain last year's season. He was clear that everyone involved had learned a lot, and that this season would be better. In that case, they must get the most out of Hideki and Kazuki, in addition to the naive football of Italiano must be scrapped. This really does not look good, and we try the following play;

Australia at 12:45: Perth Glory - Wellington Phoenix: Over 1.5 goals to Perth Glory (1.69)✅

Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets

The first round of the series continues to deliver. Not only do we get the festive clash between Adelaide and Sydney, as well as the distance derby between Perth and Wellington, but we also get the F3 derby between the Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets. This is a hot match, and where the rivalry is strong, and this match always tends to deliver the goods.

This match is so significant that they have created their own trophy. From the remains of the guardrail that ran along the highway that separated the cities. A highway called F3. Hence the name of the match. And for a long time, CCM has been the permanent holder of this trophy. But something happened last year, because after six straight victories, it was the Jets who took 4 of 6 points in 2025. Especially 6-0 at home was too much to deal with for the jaded CCM fans. But who will take it this year?

There is much to suggest that the trend will continue. This year's Jets team looks very exciting. They are newly-minted cup champions, and with Mark Milligan in charge, it finally looks like the sun will shine on the Newcastle Jets. It has been a lean year for a long time now. They have somehow managed to bring in individual players, but they have not been able to keep them. Like with striker Stamatelopoulos and left-back Mauragis. Classy players who should have stayed, but who left.

But it's different this time. Eli Adams should have left, but stayed. The same goes for Kosta Grozos. And now Mizunuma, Burgess and Rose have arrived, so the team is starting to look complete. But like last year, there is great excitement about who will score the goals. Rose has been retrained as a striker, successfully, and there are many goals in that midfield. But whether it is enough to lift the team into the top 6 remains to be seen. But that it looks brighter than it has been for a long time is completely indisputable.

And at the other end of the highway the lights are out. It's pitch dark here. Because after winning the league title two years in a row, in addition to winning the AFC Champions League 2, it was over. It's not uncommon for good players to leave in this league. But then you have to find replacements. CCM never managed that. Players like Nisbet, Valencia and Tulio were never adequately replaced. Edmondson, McCalmont and Salisbury were never anywhere near what their predecessors were, and then it becomes difficult to follow up.

But unfortunately it doesn't stop there. Because earlier this week it became clear that Mark Jackson left. And for a team in crisis, it is a disaster to be without a coach less than a week before the season starts. But that is where CCM is now. And with a start like that, this season cannot possibly be a success. Because with Di Pizio injured, much of the offensive responsibility will fall on Theoharous. But he is too unstable. And there is therefore much to suggest that Newcastle Jets will be the best in the east.

But what is being played here? The bookmakers have unfortunately caught on to the chaos that is prevailing in Central Coast Mariners. You can still try marking, but I think the odds are too low, all the while this is a local match. So I end up with the following bet;

Australia at 06:00: Central Coast Mariners – Newcastle Jets: over 3.5 goals (1.68)✅