3. League – Season End – 17.05

We have now reached the end of the road in the 3rd Liga and we have got exactly what we thought: anyone can beat anyone. It has been very even at times at the top, and what seemed to be a great season for newly promoted Energie Cottbus has ended with a decline in form and now a fight for a qualifying place. Erzgebirge Aue also started well, and was an exciting team to follow until they disappeared into no man's land and were able to win well against top opposition and at the same time suffer crushing losses against bottom opposition. Ingolstadt and Viktoria Köln followed in the same vein for a long time, occasionally playing brilliantly until their overall quality showed. Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück were both relegated last year, and struggled for a long time in the 3rd Liga, especially Osnabrück. Here we do not have to go far back in time before it seemed to be heading towards back-to-back relegations. But they have improved and will be seen in the 3rd Liga next season. Hansa Rostock also struggled in the autumn, but have had a brilliant spring season and are now actually fighting for a qualifying place for the 2nd Bundesliga! Sandhausen were predicted to have a typical mid-table season, but have been far from good enough and will play next season in the Regionalliga. Before the win against Erzegirbirge last weekend, they had a total of 9 straight losses. They were easy to bet against at good odds. The 2nd teams of Dortmund, Hannover and Stuttgart have all failed and it seems that only the 2nd team of Stuttgart will be allowed to continue in the 3rd league next season, if they do the job against the in-form RW Essen. They have a worse goal difference than the 2nd team of Dortmund, who can steal the important 16th place, but they face Saarbrücken away who are fighting an intense battle for the even more important qualifying place. RW Essen has been our 'winner – draw no bet' team and there they have delivered to the max. Of 12 betting tips on RW Essen, 9 have gone in and only 3 have gone out! At the top of the table we have Arminia Bielefeld who have charmed most people throughout the season, especially with their cup adventure, followed closely by their rival Dynamo Dresden. We will see both of these in the 2nd Bundesliga next season, and we can only look forward to it! The fans of both teams, but especially Dynamo, are fantastic! They will definitely make a noise in the 2nd Bundesliga.

We have some real treats in the last round of the series, and we have taken all 10 matches for us in short analyses. Corners, cards, goalscorers and generally a wider range of bets are rare for 3. Liga matches, so here the focus is mostly on marking and goals - as it has been all season. Here you can choose single, double or even triple combos, and mix and match what you feel fits best. Good luck!

Arminia Bielefeld – Waldhof Mannheim

We start at the top with the team that would really like to finish in 1st place: Arminia Bielefeld. They host Waldhof Mannheim who in theory could be relegated, but then they would have to lose with some ugly numbers and Dortmund II would have to take a real beating in Saarbrücken. The probability that they won't make it is relatively small, but they can't relax too much. What Waldhof can build on are impressive victories against Energie Cottbus and Dynamo Dresden in the previous two weeks. However, Arminia has not been any worse, and the motivation will be strong here: brilliant weather is forecast, a packed stadium and champagne has been bought for the celebration. And they know that they have the qualities in the team to win this match comfortably and give the football city of Bielefeld the party they deserve. It was 1-1 when they met in the autumn, but Arminia has only improved and improved since then and has scored 2 goals or more in the last 4/5. There are no noticeable injuries in any of the squads and we have faith in party football from Arminia here:

Arminia over 1.5 goals (1.67) – 5/10 units

 

1860 Munich – Erzgebirge Aue

None of these teams have anything to play for and with that, motivational factors like 'last game of the season, give it your all!' and 'do it for the fans' quickly become thin. It doesn't always give the same amount of fuel and with that it's not good to say what you get. When the teams met in the fall, Erzgebirge won 3-1 and we can easily get goals here: 1860 Munich has over 2.5 goals in the last 4/5 and the same applies to Erzegebirge. We think it could be an open match, perhaps affected by low shoulders and blurred concentration:

Over 2.5 goals (1.62) – 3/10 units

 

Dynamo Dresden – Unterhaching

Dynamo Dresden enter the final round of the league knowing that they can take 1st place if Arminia stumbles – here they will go out in flames against a long-lost Unterhaching who are at the bottom and have been there for a long time. Dynamo stumbled against Waldhof last weekend, but it will be hard to imagine them doing the same here. It will be important to get an early lead and run this match. We have to go back to April 8th the last time Unterhaching won and they also lost 3-0 at home to Dynamo in the fall. A win and the number of goals Dynamo must have doesn't give the world, but goals before halftime give good odds. We believe in a repeat of the match against Sandhausen where they scored two goals before 10 minutes had passed. The game here will be:

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time (1.64) – 4/10 units

 

Energie Cottbus – Ingolstadt 04

There will definitely be a nervous atmosphere when Cottbus hosts Ingolstadt at the Stadion der Freunschaft – after an impressive season for the newly promoted team, they are now fighting for the qualifying place they hold before the last round is played. Energie led the 3. Liga for a long time and there was almost a tendency towards a cocky atmosphere in Cottbus before the drop in form came at the end of February. Then they fell quickly and suddenly everything was about securing the qualifying place. Now they have a chance against an Ingolstadt that has nothing to play for. After an impressive 3-1 away against Hansa Rostock last weekend, everything is in place to follow it up here and give the audience more football to look forward to. It certainly won't be about motivation and carrots for Cottbus here, when the city with 99,000 inhabitants is looking forward to the dream of playing in the 2. Bundesliga for the first time since the 13/14 season. We are going for motivation and reward here:

Energie Cottbus to win (1.53) – 5/10 units

 

Hannover II – Hansa Rostock

Here we have another match where one team has nothing to play for and one team has everything to play for. Hannover II is long gone, even though they have shown occasional good moves in the closing stages in a solid attempt to save their place. Hansa Rostock, on the other hand, has spent the season dancing up and down the table. The autumn season was reflected in consistently unstable play. They had until September 24th to get their first three points. The fans and the team were both looking bleak at that point for the rest of the season. There were several losses, before they began to recover before Christmas. The status before the winter break was 8-4-7. The spring has been better with 10-2-6 and with that they are now in 5th place with +9 in goal difference and the opportunity to steal the qualifying place ahead of Energie Cottbus or Saarbrücken. But then they have to win in Hannover and it will be exciting to see how they handle the pressure after a stinging 3-1 loss against Energie Cottbus last weekend. Hannover II has been relatively close at the back, with 3 conceded in the last 4 games, but they have also faced opponents of lower caliber. When the teams met in the fall, it was 1-0 to Hansa and we think that can happen again here. We go for pure marking:

Hansa Rostock wins (1.75) – 3/10 units

 

VfL Osnabrück – SC Verl

Both of these teams end the season simply and simply by just rowing it ashore. Occasional promising moves from Verl end up with the upper half of the table position, and for Osnabrück it is about breathing a sigh of relief after what for a long time seemed to be another relegation season. How much motivation lies in this match is hard to say, but Osnabrück has a slightly better form curve and perhaps a bit more determination to give the fans a final victory of the season. Verl, for its part, has been involved in very goal-rich matches lately, 4 of the last 5 have ended with over 3.5 goals. Osnabrück, for its part, has under 2.5 in the last 4/5. When the teams met in the fall, it was 1-1. It is certainly not easy to say whether this will be a goal-rich match or not – the teams are in conflict here. Betting on over 2.5 goals could be interesting here, but the feeling is closer to Osnabrück winning here – they could be tough at home, have slightly better form and a bit more reason to give more here to please the fans. The bet here will be:

Osnabrück wins - draw no bet (1.62) - 3/10 units

 

Saarbrücken – Borussia Dortmund II

Here we come to one of the more exciting matches in the final round: the away team must win and the home team can strictly get away with a draw if the results elsewhere go their way, but the focus is probably to go all-in for three points here. With that, the framework is set for two fully motivated teams: a home team that can secure a qualifying place and an away team that can avoid relegation with a cry for help. Neither team is in great shape and both are coming off losses last weekend. Dortmund II is probably in a slightly worse condition with straight losses and a whopping 11 goals behind. It has been goal-rich in the last 5 for both teams here – Saarbrücken with over 2.5 goals in the last 4/5, a full 3 of these with over 3.5 goals, and Dortmund II with over 2.5 goals in the last 4/5, also those with over 3.5 goals in 3 of these. In other words, the defenses have taken an early summer break. Ironically, it was 0-0 the last time these two met, but here we believe in goals. A lot is at stake and the teams must advance. Feel free to try a high odds of over 3.5 goals, but the main bet here is:

Over 3 goals asian (1.80) – 4/10 units

 

Sandhausen – Victoria Cologne 1904

A defeated Sandhausen hosts a Viktoria Köln that almost made it this season. There is nothing to play for here and such matches are always difficult. The form curve of both teams is poor, but both are coming off encouraging wins last weekend. In terms of goals, Sandhausen has over 2.5 goals in the last 4/5, while Viktoria Köln has under 2.5 goals in the last 5/5. Once again, it is contradictory to pick a bet on exactly that. Sandhausen had 9 straight losses before last weekend's win, so it is conceivable in those fields again. However, Viktoria has only 2 wins in the last 5, but two of those games have been against top opposition. When the teams met in the fall, it was 2-0 to Viktoria. Considering the framework leading up to this match, a solid Viktoria defense and a Sandhausen that has little honor left to play for, this could quickly be a goalless draw. Even with contradictory statistics, it is mostly about underplay here.

Under 2.5 goals (2.20) – 3/10 units

 

VfB Stuttgart II – RW Essen

Stuttgart II should at least get 1 point from this match, with Dortmund II chasing after them. When they also have a worse goal difference than Dortmund II, the frame is set for a nervous start to this match. Stuttgart II now won against Dortmund II last weekend, and has enough motivation to build on this and save their place in the 3rd League. They face a RW Essen that has nothing to play for, but is in brilliant form. It is not conceivable that they will drop completely here. Stuttgart II has not lost in the last 5 matches (3 draws and 2 wins) while RW Essen has 4 wins and 1 loss. When the teams met in the autumn it was 2-2. With the support of recent form on both teams and the frame for the match, we give Stuttgart II the advantage here and believe that they will do everything to get the one point needed:

Stuttgart II win - draw no bet (1.72) - 4/10 units

 

Wehen Wiesbaden - Alemannia Aachen

The last match is 9th place against 12th place, with a 2-point difference. It can be argued that this is the least important match this weekend. Wehen Wiesbaden rose a little this season at the top, but do not have enough quality to match the best, which is disappointing for the city with 300,000 inhabitants after relegation last year. Alemannia Aachen, on the other hand, are generally satisfied after their promotion last year and retain their place in the 3rd league by a good margin. And that is a victory in itself after 11 seasons in the Regionalliga, and in that respect both fans and players are very happy with it. This is something to build on next season. Both teams have 3 wins in their last 5 and both are mostly finding the back of the net, both with goals in the last 4/5. With little to play for, low shoulders and decent form, we think both will find the back of the net here again, even though it was 0-0 in the autumn. The alternative is an underdog, but there have been a bit too many goals for both teams lately to be comfortable going for. The bet here is:

Both teams to score (1.65) – 3/10 units

 

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